SUMMARY OF SNP (October, 2012)

Classification of SNP: Near Private or Private, son of DF41.

Estimated Breadth of SNP (speculative estimate of positive submissions) = 15+ = 2 x 98 % (14 of 14) + 0 x 95 % (13 of 14) + 0 x 93 % (12 of 14) + 0 x 90 % (11 of 14) + 2 x 85 % (10 of 14) + 5 x 50 % (9 of 14) + 30 x 15 % (8 of 14) + 50 x 10 % (7 of 14). Very speculative as Nuckolls submission is quite different from the Creer submissions.

Estimated Breadth of SNP: 20 to 30 submissions (many 25 and 37 marker Creer submissions could upgrade to 67 markers and should be included).

Dominant Surname: Creer (also aka McCrere) & Nuckolls.

Year that SNPs were discovered: April, 2011.

Source of SNP: WTY FTDNA - Creer, FTDNA ID 35212, Y-Search ID ZYWYP.

Number of Positive Tests: Only three known (67 markers) and one known (37 markers).

Number of Negative Broad Tests: 39.

Number of Negative Tests within Fingerprint (70 % matches): None.

Possible Candidates at 67 markers (70 % match): Two McKenzie submissions found at 67 markers, but around twenty 37 marker and 25 marker testing candidates were found in the Creer Surname Project. With the recent positive test of 181546 (only matches 9 of 14 of the L563 fingerprint markers), L563 may be much broader than originally believed. 385a = 11, 464b=15, 576=18. 413a=23 and 487=13 may not be part of the L563 fingerprint since 181546 all have the L21 modal for these markers.

Pending Tests (within Fingerprint): None known.

ANALYSIS OF FINGERPRINT MARKERS

There are two markers that were removed from the previous L563 fingerprint: 389-1 >= 14 and YCAIIb >= 24. From the Creer surname project, around half of the marker values are the L21 modal and half are the marker values listed above. There are two scenarios for these marker values: 1) the marker value of these two markers were the L21 modal values at L563 creation and the mutations represent a major early post L563 creation branch; 2) the mutations above were pre L563 creation and post L563 were backwards mutations back to the L21 modal marker values. It is more likely that these marker values only mutated once after L21 creation vs. mutating twice with the backwards mutations.

The lower resolution Creer submissions at 25 markers and 37 markers make the L563 fingerprint very accurate for the lower marker values as 385a, 437, 449, 464b and 464c as all have at the minimum 15 of 19 submissions testing with the L563 fingerprint. For the markers between 26 and 37, H4, 456 and 576 all tested with at least 8 of 9 of the L563 marker values. For marker values 28 to 67, these marker values are more speculative as only 2 of 2 marker values tested positive for the L563 fingerprint (413a, 594, 534, 481, 446 and 487).

With the recent postive test of the Nuckolls submission, 385a, 464b, 576, 413a and 487 may be removed from the L563 fingerprint. With only one outlier submission, it is unknown which of these markers will be removed from the L583 fingerprint without more testing results.

TRENDS OF TESTING CANDIDATES

Note that the characteristics of known testing candidates do not appear to be a typical for L21 Y-SNP where the number of testing candidates declines down to 70 % matches, remains very low for some time and then sees a sharp rise as non-L563 submissions dominate the under 50 % matches. The number of matches above 70 % are very sparse (only two currently). However, there are many 25 and 37 marker submissions that clearly match the L563 fingerprint, so the curves could later reveal a more typical L21 Y-SNP curve. It is highly recommended that any line that does not descend from same well proven oldest proven ancestor of the two positive 67 marker submissions should be upgraded to 67 markers and tested for L563.

ISOGG Status - Prove relationship of L563 to other L21 SNPs

Requirements for qualifiying L563 for inclusion on the ISOGG haplotree have been met. All relationships to other Y-SNPs have been fully tested and pass all ISOGG requirements.

ISOGG Status - Prove genetic and surname diversity of L563

L563 now satisfies both the 15 % genetic diversity requirement and the surname diversity requirement for inclusion on the ISOGG haplotree. Two submissions of L563 must have at least a genetic distance of 10 (15 % x 67 markers = 10). L563 is now ready to be submitted to ISOGG for approval.

DNA FINGERPRINTS
(to be refined with more testing)

L21 Off Modal Mutations for L563 fingerprint (67 markers):

Markers 1 to 37: 385a >= 12, 437 <= 14, 449 <= 29, 464b >= 16, 464c <= 16, GATAH4 <= 10, 456 <= 15 and 576 <= 17 (8 mutations).

Markers 38 to 67: 413a <= 21, 594 >= 11, 534 <= 14, 481 <= 21, 446 <= 12 and 487 >= 14 (6 mutations).

L563 Signature (L21 Project): 41-1114.

Markers 1 to 37: 437 = 14 (1 mutation).

Markers 38 to 67: 594 = 11 and 534 = 14 (2 mutations).

BOUNDARY CONDITION TESTING

Most Distant Positive Test Known (67 markers)
(from MRCA of positive submissions - not WTY):

Nuckolls, FTDNA ID 181546, 9 of 14 match for L563 fingerprint and GD = 14.

Closest Negative Test Known (67 markers)
(from MRCA of positive submissions - not WTY):

Dugger, FTDNA ID 85107, 8 of 14 match and GD = 13.

CREER SURNAME PROJECT

There are around 20 close matches to the above DNA fingerprint found at the Creer Surname Project. Most are 25 and 37 marker submissions that were not found with the 67 Y-Search query used. Only two submissions have been tested at 67 markers (or higher) and only one has been uploaded to Y-Search at 67 markers (the second is only uploaded at 25 markers).